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Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news.
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April 24th, 2023
Small businesses have an incredible impact on both the national and local economy. Small businesses make up the majority of all businesses by count, while also employing over 46% of the private sector workforce. It’s not a stretch to say “as goes the small and independent business, so goes the national economy.”
April 17th, 2023
The commercial real estate (CRE) market has recently captured the spotlight after being flagged as the next potential shoe to drop following last month’s banking turmoil. While rising rates have weighed on financing costs and the recent bank failures will make lending more restrictive, the post-pandemic world has produced structural changes that will likely weigh on the sector, especially within the retail and office segments.
April 10th, 2023
First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with some big banks reporting toward the end of the week. In some ways this quarter’s earnings season will probably be déjà vu all over again—earnings declines and cautious guidance, reductions in estimates, but better than feared.
March 21st, 2023
The ongoing fragility of the banking system, coupled with the negative impact on bank profits from these recent events, leaves us neutral on financials for now with a strong preference for high quality. Fundamentals and valuations suggest the insurance industry looks ripe for opportunities.
March 13th, 2023
Earnings estimates have held up better than many expected. We’re in a very strong seasonal period for stocks, based on the four-year presidential cycle (year three has an average gain of 16.8%, higher 89% of the time since 1950).
March 6th, 2023
A soft landing is when economic growth slows but remains positive as the economy sets up for a long-term sustainable growth path. In contrast, a hard landing means the country falls into recession to break the overheated economic machine.
February 27, 2023
While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,”
February 20, 2023
Despite lackluster overall results, we see a silver lining amid the sea of red numbers. Earnings estimates for 2023 have been widely considered to be too high based on historical earnings declines in recessions.
February 13, 2023
Low participation rates continue to weigh on the minds of economists and investors, but it’s important to remember that business formation stats are consistently growing above pre-pandemic levels, revealing many workers’ interests in alternative employment and one reason why some of the workers remain out of the official labor force.
February 6, 2023
Investors got more excited about international investing late last year. Some of that was chasing better returns, as developed international equities solidly beat the U.S. over the last three months of 2022. Some was the increased popularity of value investing as mega-cap U.S. technology stocks became less in favor.
January 16, 2023
The key question coming into this earnings season is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
January 3, 2023
The process of finding balance may continue to be challenging and we may even see a recession, but underlying fundamentals could create opportunities in stock and bond markets that were difficult to find in 2022.
December 12, 2022
December is off to a rough start, and so far it’s not living up to its seasonal reputation of being one of the best months for equity market returns.
November 21, 2022
The growth vs. value debate has been pretty one-sided in 2022, with value outperforming growth for a sustained period for the first time in almost 15 years...
November 14, 2022
November 7, 2022
In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we look at why the stock market may respond favorably to the midterm election, whatever the outcome...
October 31, 2022
With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023...
October 10, 2022
As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to emphasize the Fed’s commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher. Markets are currently pricing in another 75-basis point rate hike at the November 2 Fed meeting as calls for the Fed to halt its aggressive campaign are mounting...